The 2027 COLA is almost official. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish September’s inflation numbers at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, Oct. 14, according to its release calendar, and that is the last piece of data the Social Security Administration needs to set next year’s cost-of-living adjustment. Until then, every number you see, including the ones below, is an estimate.

There is no shutdown standing in the way this time. Congress passed, and the president signed, a stopgap bill that keeps the government funded through Dec. 11, 2026, LeadingAge reported. For comparison, last year’s 2.8% raise was not announced until Oct. 24, 2025, per the agency’s own press release.

How the 2027 COLA is calculated

The formula is set by law. Social Security compares the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September of this year with the same three months of last year, the agency explains. Two of those three months are already in. CPI-W was up 3.4% from a year earlier in July and 3.5% in August, according to The Senior Citizens League.

That is why forecasters now agree within a few tenths of a point:

• The Senior Citizens League: 3.5%
• AARP: 3.6%
• Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB): 3.4%

All three were reported by Fox Business on Sept. 21. Any of them would be a bigger raise than 2026’s 2.8%. The Senior Citizens League says the main risk now is a short-term shock that moves inflation sharply in the final month.

What it means in dollars

The average retired worker received $2,087.52 a month in August 2026, according to Social Security’s monthly statistical snapshot. Here is how that check would change under each estimate:

BCN calculation using SSA’s August 2026 average. Your raise is your own benefit times the final COLA.

A quick way to do your own math: every $1,000 of monthly benefit adds about $35 at a 3.5% COLA. So a $1,500 check would rise about $52.50, and a $2,500 check about $87.50. The new amount shows up in the payment you receive in January 2027.

What about SSI?

Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments rise by the same COLA percentage. Last year, the agency said nearly 7.5 million people receiving SSI would see their increase starting with the payment dated Dec. 31, 2025, per the same 2026 announcement linked above. Because Jan. 1 is a federal holiday, SSI’s first higher payment usually lands on the last business day of December, so watch your year-end deposit. If you receive both SSI and Social Security, both amounts change, and the combination matters for other benefits like SNAP and housing assistance, so report changes when your agencies ask.

The Medicare Part B catch

For most retirees, the Medicare Part B premium is deducted from the Social Security check before it hits the bank. So the real raise is the COLA minus any premium increase.

In June, Medicare’s trustees projected a standard Part B premium of $209.50 a month for 2027, up from $202.90 in 2026, MOAA reported. That $6.60 bump would turn the average retiree’s estimated $73 raise into roughly $66. Some private forecasters expect the final premium to land higher, between $216 and $219, according to 24/7 Wall St.. The official 2027 premium usually arrives later in the fall, so treat both numbers as estimates too.

Why this raise matters more for Black retirees

For many Black households, Social Security is not a supplement. It is the retirement plan. In 2017, among Black Americans receiving Social Security, 58% of unmarried older people and 35% of older married couples relied on it for 90% or more of their income, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. Citing older Social Security data, the same group notes that only 26% of Black Americans received income from assets, compared with more than 55% of white Americans.

Social Security lifted more than 1.6 million Black adults 65 and older out of poverty in 2024, cutting their poverty rate by nearly two-thirds, according to Justice in Aging. When the check is most of your income, a few tenths of a point on the COLA is real money at the grocery store and the pharmacy counter.

Your 2027 COLA checklist

• Get the real number on Oct. 14. Check Social Security’s official COLA page at ssa.gov/cola or its newsroom rather than a forwarded screenshot or a viral post.
• Watch your my Social Security account. Last year, the agency began mailing new-benefit notices in early December and posted Medicare premium details to online accounts starting in late November, per its 2026 COLA announcement. If you do not have an account yet, setting one up at ssa.gov/myaccount before then saves a trip or a long hold.
• Budget the net, not the gross. Plan around what is left after Part B, and after any Part D or Medicare Advantage premium you pay.
• Check Medicare help before Dec. 7. Medicare open enrollment runs Oct. 15 to Dec. 7. State-run Medicare Savings Programs can pay your Part B premium, and 2026 monthly income limits for an individual run from $1,350 to $1,816 depending on the program. If you are already enrolled, a raise can push income close to a limit, so respond to any renewal paperwork.
• Remember the new senior deduction. People 65 and older can claim an extra $6,000 deduction for tax years 2025 through 2028, phasing out above $75,000 in modified adjusted gross income ($150,000 for joint filers), according to the IRS.
• Ignore “COLA bonus” calls. Social Security will never demand payment by gift card, wire transfer or cryptocurrency or threaten to suspend your number, the agency warns. Report scams at oig.ssa.gov.

For questions about your own Medicare costs, a free counselor through your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) can walk through your options one on one. And if you are mapping out the rest of the year, our Q4 money checklist for Black families lines up the other deadlines worth knowing.